Sloboda Uzice 3–1 Proleter Novi SAD: Result & Stats

Sloboda Uzice

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Proleter Novi SAD

3/25/2017

Prva Liga · Round 19Gradski Stadion (Užice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sloboda Uzice39%

×Draw29%

Proleter Novi SAD32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda UziceExpected goals in this matchProleter Novi SAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.03

Sloboda Uzice

1.17

Proleter Novi SAD

1.03

Sloboda Uzice creates 14% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 17 away

1.04

creates per match

1.06

1.00

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sloboda Uzice

1.04

Proleter Novi SAD

1.06

allows per match

Sloboda Uzice

1.00

Proleter Novi SAD

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Uzice+0.00on par

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Uzice ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sloboda Uzice or draw

68%

Sloboda Uzice or Proleter Novi SAD

71%

Draw or Proleter Novi SAD

61%

Winning margin

Sloboda Uzice wins by 2+

16%

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sloboda Uzice 1+ goals

69%

Sloboda Uzice 2+ goals

33%

Sloboda Uzice 3+ goals

11%

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

64%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

28%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Uzice (draw refunded)

55%

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Uzice at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Uzice attack 1.04 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.06 + Sloboda Uzice defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sloboda Uzice scores more

39%

level

29%

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

32%

Sloboda Uzice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sloboda Uzice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff