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Sloboda Tuzla vs Vis Kosova — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Vis Kosova
Vis Kosova
6/8/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 30Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla57%
×Draw23%
Vis Kosova20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.78
Vis Kosova
0.96

Sloboda Tuzla creates 85% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.86
Vis Kosova
1.21

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
0.71
Vis Kosova
1.70

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Vis Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Vis Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
80%
Sloboda Tuzla or Vis Kosova
77%
Draw or Vis Kosova
43%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
32%
Vis Kosova wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
83%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
53%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
26%
Vis Kosova 1+ goals
62%
Vis Kosova 2+ goals
25%
Vis Kosova 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
74%
Vis Kosova (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Vis Kosova away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Vis Kosova defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.78

Vis Kosova attack 1.21 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
57%
level
23%
Vis Kosova scores more
20%

Sloboda Tuzla at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Tuzla vs Vis Kosova

Sloboda Tuzla beat Vis Kosova 3-1 in 1st League - FBiH on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.