Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sloboda Tuzla vs Gradina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
FT
1 – 0
Gradina
Gradina
9/2/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4Stadion Tušanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sloboda Tuzla59%
×Draw24%
Gradina17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Tuzla
1.70
Gradina
0.78

Sloboda Tuzla creates 118% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 59 away

creates per match

Sloboda Tuzla
1.86
Gradina
0.85

allows per match

Sloboda Tuzla
0.71
Gradina
1.54

finishing

Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par
Gradina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Tuzla ↓

Gradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloboda Tuzla or draw
83%
Sloboda Tuzla or Gradina
76%
Draw or Gradina
41%

Winning margin

Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
33%
Gradina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
82%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
51%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
24%
Gradina 1+ goals
54%
Gradina 2+ goals
18%
Gradina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
78%
Gradina (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Tuzla at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 28 matches

Gradina away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.86 + Gradina defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.70

Gradina attack 0.85 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sloboda Tuzla scores more
59%
level
24%
Gradina scores more
17%

Sloboda Tuzla at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sloboda Tuzla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Tuzla vs Gradina

Sloboda Tuzla beat Gradina 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Tušanj in Tuzla.