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Sloboda Novi Kozarci vs Sloga Čonoplja — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
FT
2 – 1
Sloga Čonoplja
Sloga Čonoplja
4/17/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Alko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci41%
×Draw25%
Sloga Čonoplja34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.54
Sloga Čonoplja
1.39

Sloboda Novi Kozarci creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 49 away

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.00
Sloga Čonoplja
1.04

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.74
Sloga Čonoplja
2.08

finishing

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par
Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or draw
66%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci or Sloga Čonoplja
75%
Draw or Sloga Čonoplja
59%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
20%
Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
79%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
45%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
20%
Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals
75%
Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals
40%
Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
54%
Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
41%
level
25%
Sloga Čonoplja scores more
34%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Kozarci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2–1 Sloga Čonoplja

Sloboda Novi Kozarci beat Sloga Čonoplja 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Alko Arena in Novi Kozarci.