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Sloboda Novi Kozarci vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
FT
1 – 0
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
4/10/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 27Alko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci36%
×Draw25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.38
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.00
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.74
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or draw
61%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci or Hajduk 1912 Kula
75%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
64%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
16%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
75%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
40%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
16%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
77%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
43%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
48%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
36%
level
25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
39%

Hajduk 1912 Kula at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hajduk 1912 Kula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1–0 Hajduk 1912 Kula

Sloboda Novi Kozarci beat Hajduk 1912 Kula 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Alko Arena in Novi Kozarci.