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Sloboda Novi Kozarci vs Dunav Stari Banovci — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
FT
0 – 0
Dunav Stari Banovci
Dunav Stari Banovci
9/26/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 9Alko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci54%
×Draw23%
Dunav Stari Banovci23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.88
Dunav Stari Banovci
1.16

Sloboda Novi Kozarci creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.00
Dunav Stari Banovci
0.57

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.74
Dunav Stari Banovci
2.75

finishing

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par
Dunav Stari Banovci+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓

Dunav Stari Banovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or draw
77%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci or Dunav Stari Banovci
77%
Draw or Dunav Stari Banovci
46%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
31%
Dunav Stari Banovci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
85%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
56%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
29%
Dunav Stari Banovci 1+ goals
69%
Dunav Stari Banovci 2+ goals
32%
Dunav Stari Banovci 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
70%
Dunav Stari Banovci (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Dunav Stari Banovci away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.75 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Dunav Stari Banovci defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Dunav Stari Banovci attack 0.57 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
54%
level
23%
Dunav Stari Banovci scores more
23%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Kozarci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Novi Kozarci vs Dunav Stari Banovci

Sloboda Novi Kozarci and Dunav Stari Banovci drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Alko Arena in Novi Kozarci.