Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sloboda Novi Kozarci vs Bratstvo Prigrevica — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
Sloboda Novi Kozarci
FT
0 – 3
Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
11/7/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 16Alko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci28%
×Draw27%
Bratstvo Prigrevica45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.05
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.40

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 33% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.00
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.05

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci
1.74
Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.10

finishing

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par
Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓

Bratstvo Prigrevica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or draw
55%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci or Bratstvo Prigrevica
73%
Draw or Bratstvo Prigrevica
72%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+
11%
Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals
65%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals
28%
Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals
9%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
75%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
41%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)
39%
Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.10 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.05

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.05 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more
28%
level
27%
Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
45%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloboda Novi Kozarci 0–3 Bratstvo Prigrevica

Bratstvo Prigrevica beat Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Alko Arena in Novi Kozarci.