Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2–2 Bačka 1901: Result & Stats

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

FT

2 – 2

Bačka 1901

9/16/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Alko Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sloboda Novi Kozarci38%

×Draw24%

Bačka 190138%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Novi KozarciExpected goals in this matchBačka 1901

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.50

Bačka 1901

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.00

creates per match

1.26

1.74

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.00

Bačka 1901

1.26

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci

1.74

Bačka 1901

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Novi Kozarci+0.00on par

Bačka 1901+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Kozarci ↓

Bačka 1901 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or draw

62%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci or Bačka 1901

76%

Draw or Bačka 1901

62%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Kozarci wins by 2+

18%

Bačka 1901 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 1+ goals

78%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 2+ goals

44%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci 3+ goals

19%

Bačka 1901 1+ goals

78%

Bačka 1901 2+ goals

44%

Bačka 1901 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Kozarci (draw refunded)

50%

Bačka 1901 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Bačka 1901 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Kozarci attack 1.00 + Bačka 1901 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bačka 1901 attack 1.26 + Sloboda Novi Kozarci defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sloboda Novi Kozarci scores more

38%

level

24%

Bačka 1901 scores more

38%

Sloboda Novi Kozarci at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Kozarci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff