Sloboda Novi Grad 2–0 Podrinje Janja

Sloboda Novi Grad

FT

2 – 0

Podrinje Janja

10/24/2020

1st League - RS · RS - 12Stadion Mlakve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sloboda Novi Grad67%

×Draw20%

Podrinje Janja12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda Novi GradExpected goals in this matchPodrinje Janja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

0.70

Sloboda Novi Grad

1.98

Podrinje Janja

0.70

Sloboda Novi Grad creates 183% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 54 away

1.55

creates per match

0.80

0.60

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Sloboda Novi Grad

1.55

Podrinje Janja

0.80

allows per match

Sloboda Novi Grad

0.60

Podrinje Janja

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Novi Grad ↓

Podrinje Janja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sloboda Novi Grad or draw

88%

Sloboda Novi Grad or Podrinje Janja

80%

Draw or Podrinje Janja

33%

Winning margin

Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+

42%

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals

86%

Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals

59%

Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals

31%

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

50%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

16%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)

85%

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Novi Grad at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.60 · 67 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.55 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.98

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sloboda Novi Grad scores more

67%

level

20%

Podrinje Janja scores more

12%

Sloboda Novi Grad at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff