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Podrinje Janja vs Sloboda Novi Grad — 1st League - RS 2019

Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
FT
0 – 3
Sloboda Novi Grad
Sloboda Novi Grad
8/14/20211st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 1Stadion Podrinje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Podrinje Janja35%
×Draw28%
Sloboda Novi Grad37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podrinje Janja
1.13
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 65 away

creates per match

Podrinje Janja
0.92
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.09

allows per match

Podrinje Janja
1.23
Sloboda Novi Grad
1.34

finishing

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par
Sloboda Novi Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podrinje Janja ↓

Sloboda Novi Grad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Podrinje Janja or draw
63%
Podrinje Janja or Sloboda Novi Grad
72%
Draw or Sloboda Novi Grad
65%

Winning margin

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
14%
Sloboda Novi Grad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
68%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
31%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
11%
Sloboda Novi Grad 1+ goals
69%
Sloboda Novi Grad 2+ goals
32%
Sloboda Novi Grad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
49%
Sloboda Novi Grad (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podrinje Janja at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 53 matches

Sloboda Novi Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.34 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podrinje Janja attack 0.92 + Sloboda Novi Grad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sloboda Novi Grad attack 1.09 + Podrinje Janja defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Podrinje Janja scores more
35%
level
28%
Sloboda Novi Grad scores more
37%

Sloboda Novi Grad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sloboda Novi Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podrinje Janja vs Sloboda Novi Grad

Sloboda Novi Grad beat Podrinje Janja 3-0 in 1st League - RS on August 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Podrinje in Janja.