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Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad vs Podrinje Janja — 1st League - RS 2019

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Podrinje Janja
Podrinje Janja
5/17/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 31Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad61%
×Draw21%
Podrinje Janja18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
2.05
Podrinje Janja
1.02

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad creates 101% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
1.69
Podrinje Janja
0.80

allows per match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad
1.24
Podrinje Janja
2.41

finishing

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par
Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad ↓

Podrinje Janja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or draw
82%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad or Podrinje Janja
79%
Draw or Podrinje Janja
39%

Winning margin

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+
37%
Podrinje Janja wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals
87%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals
61%
Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals
33%
Podrinje Janja 1+ goals
64%
Podrinje Janja 2+ goals
27%
Podrinje Janja 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)
77%
Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 1.69 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.05

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more
61%
level
21%
Podrinje Janja scores more
18%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad vs Podrinje Janja

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad and Podrinje Janja drew 3-3 in 1st League - RS on May 17, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Luke in Mrkonjić Grad.