Sloboda DT 3–0 RFK Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Sloboda DT

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RFK Novi Sad

11/13/2024

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 13Stadion FK Sloboda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sloboda DT60%

×Draw23%

RFK Novi Sad17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sloboda DTExpected goals in this matchRFK Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.83

Sloboda DT

1.77

RFK Novi Sad

0.83

Sloboda DT creates 113% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.07

0.60

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Sloboda DT

1.60

RFK Novi Sad

1.07

allows per match

Sloboda DT

0.60

RFK Novi Sad

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sloboda DT+0.00on par

RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda DT ↓

RFK Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sloboda DT or draw

83%

Sloboda DT or RFK Novi Sad

77%

Draw or RFK Novi Sad

40%

Winning margin

Sloboda DT wins by 2+

34%

RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sloboda DT 1+ goals

83%

Sloboda DT 2+ goals

53%

Sloboda DT 3+ goals

26%

RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals

56%

RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals

20%

RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sloboda DT (draw refunded)

78%

RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda DT at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda DT attack 1.60 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.77

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.07 + Sloboda DT defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sloboda DT scores more

60%

level

23%

RFK Novi Sad scores more

17%

Sloboda DT at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sloboda DT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff