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Sloboda DT vs Radnički Zrenjanin — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloboda DT
Sloboda DT
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Radnički Zrenjanin
Radnički Zrenjanin
9/14/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 5Stadion FK Sloboda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloboda DT57%
×Draw24%
Radnički Zrenjanin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda DT
1.69
Radnički Zrenjanin
0.84

Sloboda DT creates 101% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 87 away

creates per match

Sloboda DT
1.60
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.08

allows per match

Sloboda DT
0.60
Radnički Zrenjanin
1.78

finishing

Sloboda DT+0.00on par
Radnički Zrenjanin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda DT ↓

Radnički Zrenjanin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sloboda DT or draw
81%
Sloboda DT or Radnički Zrenjanin
76%
Draw or Radnički Zrenjanin
43%

Winning margin

Sloboda DT wins by 2+
32%
Radnički Zrenjanin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sloboda DT 1+ goals
82%
Sloboda DT 2+ goals
50%
Sloboda DT 3+ goals
24%
Radnički Zrenjanin 1+ goals
57%
Radnički Zrenjanin 2+ goals
21%
Radnički Zrenjanin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sloboda DT (draw refunded)
76%
Radnički Zrenjanin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda DT at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Radnički Zrenjanin away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda DT attack 1.60 + Radnički Zrenjanin defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.69

Radnički Zrenjanin attack 1.08 + Sloboda DT defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sloboda DT scores more
57%
level
24%
Radnički Zrenjanin scores more
19%

Sloboda DT at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sloboda DT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloboda DT 2–1 Radnički Zrenjanin

Sloboda DT beat Radnički Zrenjanin 2-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sloboda in Donji Tovarnik.