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Sloboda DT vs Backa — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Sloboda DT
Sloboda DT
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Backa
Backa
8/23/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 2Stadion FK Sloboda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sloboda DT60%
×Draw24%
Backa15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sloboda DT
1.65
Backa
0.69

Sloboda DT creates 139% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sloboda DT
1.60
Backa
0.78

allows per match

Sloboda DT
0.60
Backa
1.70

finishing

Sloboda DT+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sloboda DT ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sloboda DT or draw
85%
Sloboda DT or Backa
76%
Draw or Backa
40%

Winning margin

Sloboda DT wins by 2+
34%
Backa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sloboda DT 1+ goals
81%
Sloboda DT 2+ goals
49%
Sloboda DT 3+ goals
23%
Backa 1+ goals
50%
Backa 2+ goals
15%
Backa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Sloboda DT (draw refunded)
80%
Backa (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sloboda DT at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sloboda DT attack 1.60 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Backa attack 0.78 + Sloboda DT defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sloboda DT scores more
60%
level
24%
Backa scores more
15%

Sloboda DT at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sloboda DT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Sloboda DT 1–1 Backa

Sloboda DT and Backa drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sloboda in Donji Tovarnik.