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Slivnishki geroy vs Levski Chepintsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Levski Chepintsi
Levski Chepintsi
2/19/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 20Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Slivnishki geroy76%
×Draw15%
Levski Chepintsi10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
2.69
Levski Chepintsi
0.85

Slivnishki geroy creates 216% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 36 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Levski Chepintsi
0.61

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Levski Chepintsi
3.78

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Levski Chepintsi+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Levski Chepintsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
90%
Slivnishki geroy or Levski Chepintsi
85%
Draw or Levski Chepintsi
24%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
54%
Levski Chepintsi wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
93%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
74%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
49%
Levski Chepintsi 1+ goals
57%
Levski Chepintsi 2+ goals
21%
Levski Chepintsi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
89%
Levski Chepintsi (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Levski Chepintsi away — creates 0.61, concedes 3.78 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Levski Chepintsi defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.69

Levski Chepintsi attack 0.61 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
76%
level
15%
Levski Chepintsi scores more
10%

Slivnishki geroy at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slivnishki geroy 2–0 Levski Chepintsi

Slivnishki geroy beat Levski Chepintsi 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Slivnitsa.