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Slivnishki geroy vs Granit Vladaya — Third League - Southwest 2018

Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
FT
3 – 0
Granit Vladaya
Granit Vladaya
5/3/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 32Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Slivnishki geroy65%
×Draw20%
Granit Vladaya15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slivnishki geroy
2.12
Granit Vladaya
0.92

Slivnishki geroy creates 130% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 70 away

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.60
Granit Vladaya
0.74

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy
1.09
Granit Vladaya
2.63

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par
Granit Vladaya+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Granit Vladaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw
85%
Slivnishki geroy or Granit Vladaya
80%
Draw or Granit Vladaya
35%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
41%
Granit Vladaya wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
88%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
62%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
35%
Granit Vladaya 1+ goals
60%
Granit Vladaya 2+ goals
23%
Granit Vladaya 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
81%
Granit Vladaya (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Granit Vladaya away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.63 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Granit Vladaya defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.12

Granit Vladaya attack 0.74 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more
65%
level
20%
Granit Vladaya scores more
15%

Slivnishki geroy at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Slivnishki geroy 3–0 Granit Vladaya

Slivnishki geroy beat Granit Vladaya 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Slivnitsa.