Slivnishki geroy 3–2 Chavdar Etropole

Slivnishki geroy

FT

3 – 2

Chavdar Etropole

8/24/2019

Third League - Southwest · South-West - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Slivnishki geroy41%

×Draw25%

Chavdar Etropole34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slivnishki geroyExpected goals in this matchChavdar Etropole

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.32

Slivnishki geroy

1.47

Chavdar Etropole

1.32

Slivnishki geroy creates 11% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 87 away

1.60

creates per match

1.55

1.09

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Slivnishki geroy

1.60

Chavdar Etropole

1.55

allows per match

Slivnishki geroy

1.09

Chavdar Etropole

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slivnishki geroy ↓

Chavdar Etropole →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Slivnishki geroy or draw

66%

Slivnishki geroy or Chavdar Etropole

75%

Draw or Chavdar Etropole

59%

Winning margin

Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+

20%

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals

77%

Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals

43%

Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals

18%

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals

73%

Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals

38%

Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)

55%

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slivnishki geroy at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.09 · 131 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.60 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slivnishki geroy scores more

41%

level

25%

Chavdar Etropole scores more

34%

Slivnishki geroy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slivnishki geroy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff