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Chavdar Etropole vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
9/6/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 7Stadion Chavdar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Chavdar Etropole57%
×Draw23%
Slivnishki geroy20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chavdar Etropole
1.77
Slivnishki geroy
0.93

Chavdar Etropole creates 90% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 130 away

creates per match

Chavdar Etropole
2.08
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Chavdar Etropole
0.84
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chavdar Etropole ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Chavdar Etropole or draw
80%
Chavdar Etropole or Slivnishki geroy
77%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
43%

Winning margin

Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
32%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
83%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
53%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
26%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
61%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
24%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
74%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chavdar Etropole at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.84 · 87 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chavdar Etropole attack 2.08 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Chavdar Etropole defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Chavdar Etropole scores more
57%
level
23%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
20%

Chavdar Etropole at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Chavdar Etropole will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chavdar Etropole vs Slivnishki geroy

Chavdar Etropole and Slivnishki geroy drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on September 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Chavdar in Etropole.