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Slimane vs Club Africain — Cup 2019

Slimane
Slimane
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Club Africain
Club Africainadvanced
M. Hammouda 10'
S. Khalifa 84'
Y. Chamakhi 18'
6/2/2021CupCup · Quarter-finalsStade de Soliman

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Slimane23%
×Draw26%
Club Africain51%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slimane
0.91
Club Africain
1.51

Club Africain creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Slimane
1.00
Club Africain
1.27

allows per match

Slimane
1.75
Club Africain
0.82

finishing

Slimane+0.00on par
Club Africain+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slimane ↓

Club Africain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Slimane or draw
49%
Slimane or Club Africain
74%
Draw or Club Africain
77%

Winning margin

Slimane wins by 2+
8%
Club Africain wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Slimane 1+ goals
60%
Slimane 2+ goals
23%
Slimane 3+ goals
6%
Club Africain 1+ goals
78%
Club Africain 2+ goals
44%
Club Africain 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Slimane (draw refunded)
31%
Club Africain (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slimane at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Club Africain away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slimane attack 1.00 + Club Africain defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Club Africain attack 1.27 + Slimane defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slimane scores more
23%
level
26%
Club Africain scores more
51%

Club Africain at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Club Africain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Hammouda
18'
Y. Chamakhi
84'
S. Khalifa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slimane vs Club Africain

Club Africain beat Slimane 2-1 in Cup on June 2, 2021.

Goals: M. Hammouda (10'), Y. Chamakhi (18'), S. Khalifa (84').

The match was played at Stade de Soliman in Sulayman.