Club Africain 1–1 AS Soliman: Result & Stats

Club Africain

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AS Soliman

P. Kinzumbi 90'

M. Haddad 30' (pen)

11/1/2025

League #202 · Round 12Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Club Africain60%

×Draw27%

AS Soliman13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club AfricainExpected goals in this matchAS Soliman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.48

Club Africain

1.40

AS Soliman

0.48

Club Africain creates 192% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 21 away

1.51

creates per match

0.38

0.58

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Club Africain

1.51

AS Soliman

0.38

allows per match

Club Africain

0.58

AS Soliman

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Africain+0.00on par

AS Soliman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Africain ↓

AS Soliman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Club Africain or draw

87%

Club Africain or AS Soliman

73%

Draw or AS Soliman

40%

Winning margin

Club Africain wins by 2+

31%

AS Soliman wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Club Africain 1+ goals

75%

Club Africain 2+ goals

41%

Club Africain 3+ goals

17%

AS Soliman 1+ goals

38%

AS Soliman 2+ goals

8%

AS Soliman 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Club Africain (draw refunded)

83%

AS Soliman (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Africain at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.58 · 85 matches

AS Soliman away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Africain attack 1.51 + AS Soliman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

AS Soliman attack 0.38 + Club Africain defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Club Africain scores more

60%

level

27%

AS Soliman scores more

13%

Club Africain at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Club Africain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

B. Diarra

30'

M. HaddadPenalty

45+2'

S. Gafsi

46'

G. Zaalouni← H. Romdhane

46'

M. Boucetta← J. Khmiri

62'

H. Mansri← M. Mahmoud

62'

P. Kinzumbi← F. Al Mesmari

75'

H. Touati← Y. El Kassah

76'

B. Diarra

76'

B. Diarra

78'

M. Haddad

90+2'

90+1'

H. Ben Ali← S. Khan

90+7'

D. Jebli← M. Haddad

90'

P. Kinzumbi

Club

AS

1

17

27

31

12

▼

Khmiri

3

Amri

6

Ngankou

26

▼

Kassah

7

Diarra

9

Sowe

10

⚽

▼

1

2

20

24

▼

Romdhane

30

Shili

10

▼

Mahmoud

28

▼

32

7

21

27

▼

Mesmari

Manager: Faouzi Benzarti

46'▲G. Zaalouni←▼H. Romdhane

62'▲H. Mansri←▼M. Mahmoud

62'▲P. Kinzumbi←▼F. Al Mesmari

90+1'▲H. Ben Ali←▼S. Khan

Club Africain substitutes

16Yeferni4Bouabid17Zaalouni33Ali8Sghaier13Ouni31Mansri18Kinzumbi19Srarfi

Manager: Sami Gafsi

46'▲M. Boucetta←▼J. Khmiri

75'▲H. Touati←▼Y. El Kassah

90+7'▲D. Jebli←▼M. Haddad

AS Soliman substitutes

22Rabeh15BoucettaKonate5TouatiIssaoui35Ferchichi11Belaili21Daouser24Jebli