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Sligo Rovers vs Wexford — FAI Cup 2026

Sligo Rovers
Sligo Rovers
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wexford
Wexford
A. Keena 53' (pen)
G. Shortt 114'
D. Corcoran 80'
7/31/2022FAI CupFAI Cup · 1st RoundThe Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sligo Rovers54%
×Draw21%
Wexford24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sligo Rovers
2.05
Wexford
1.31

Sligo Rovers creates 56% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Sligo Rovers
2.50
Wexford
1.30

allows per match

Sligo Rovers
1.33
Wexford
1.60

finishing

Sligo Rovers+0.00on par
Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sligo Rovers ↓

Wexford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sligo Rovers or draw
76%
Sligo Rovers or Wexford
79%
Draw or Wexford
46%

Winning margin

Sligo Rovers wins by 2+
32%
Wexford wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sligo Rovers 1+ goals
87%
Sligo Rovers 2+ goals
61%
Sligo Rovers 3+ goals
33%
Wexford 1+ goals
73%
Wexford 2+ goals
38%
Wexford 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sligo Rovers (draw refunded)
69%
Wexford (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sligo Rovers at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sligo Rovers attack 2.50 + Wexford defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Wexford attack 1.30 + Sligo Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sligo Rovers scores more
54%
level
21%
Wexford scores more
24%

Sligo Rovers at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sligo Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
A. KeenaPenalty
80'
D. Corcoran
114'
G. Shortt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sligo Rovers vs Wexford

Sligo Rovers and Wexford drew 1-1 in FAI Cup on July 31, 2022.

Goals: A. Keena (53' pen), D. Corcoran (80'), G. Shortt (114').

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Sligo.