Sliema Wanderers 1–1 Swieqi United: Result & Stats

Sliema Wanderers

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Swieqi United

R. Prsa 90'

S. Okoh 120'

I. Davey 82'

1/3/2026

FA Trophy · Round of 32Tony Bezzina Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sliema Wanderers91%

×Draw6%

Swieqi United3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sliema WanderersExpected goals in this matchSwieqi United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.00

0.67

Sliema Wanderers

4.00

Swieqi United

0.67

Sliema Wanderers creates 497% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

4.67

creates per match

1.33

0.00

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Sliema Wanderers

4.67

Swieqi United

1.33

allows per match

Sliema Wanderers

0.00

Swieqi United

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sliema Wanderers+0.00on par

Swieqi United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sliema Wanderers ↓

Swieqi United →

0–01%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–04%

1–13%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–011%

4–18%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Sliema Wanderers or draw

97%

Sliema Wanderers or Swieqi United

94%

Draw or Swieqi United

Winning margin

Sliema Wanderers wins by 2+

78%

Swieqi United wins by 2+

Team goals

Sliema Wanderers 1+ goals

98%

Sliema Wanderers 2+ goals

90%

Sliema Wanderers 3+ goals

73%

Swieqi United 1+ goals

49%

Swieqi United 2+ goals

15%

Swieqi United 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sliema Wanderers (draw refunded)

97%

Swieqi United (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sliema Wanderers at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Swieqi United away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sliema Wanderers attack 4.67 + Swieqi United defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 4.00

Swieqi United attack 1.33 + Sliema Wanderers defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 91%?"

Sliema Wanderers scores more

91%

level

Swieqi United scores more

Sliema Wanderers at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Sliema Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

82'

90'

98'

98'

105+2'

120'

Sliema

Swieqi

Manager: Pablo Doffo

Manager: P. Doffo