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Ślęza Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
5 – 2
Raków Częstochowa II
Raków Częstochowa II
8/26/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław52%
×Draw22%
Raków Częstochowa II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
1.97
Raków Częstochowa II
1.33

Ślęza Wrocław creates 48% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Raków Częstochowa II
1.53

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Raków Częstochowa II
1.71

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
74%
Ślęza Wrocław or Raków Częstochowa II
78%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa II
48%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
30%
Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
86%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
58%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
31%
Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals
74%
Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals
38%
Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
67%
Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.97

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
52%
level
22%
Raków Częstochowa II scores more
26%

Ślęza Wrocław at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ślęza Wrocław vs Raków Częstochowa II

Ślęza Wrocław beat Raków Częstochowa II 5-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.