Ślęza Wrocław 2–2 Pawłowice Śląskie: Result & Stats

Ślęza Wrocław

FT

2 – 2

Pawłowice Śląskie

3/15/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław56%

×Draw22%

Pawłowice Śląskie22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ślęza WrocławExpected goals in this matchPawłowice Śląskie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.17

Ślęza Wrocław

2.00

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.17

Ślęza Wrocław creates 71% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

2.22

creates per match

1.20

1.13

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław

2.22

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.20

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław

1.13

Pawłowice Śląskie

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Pawłowice Śląskie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Pawłowice Śląskie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw

78%

Ślęza Wrocław or Pawłowice Śląskie

78%

Draw or Pawłowice Śląskie

44%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

33%

Pawłowice Śląskie wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

86%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

59%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

32%

Pawłowice Śląskie 1+ goals

69%

Pawłowice Śląskie 2+ goals

33%

Pawłowice Śląskie 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

72%

Pawłowice Śląskie (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Pawłowice Śląskie away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Pawłowice Śląskie defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pawłowice Śląskie attack 1.20 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

56%

level

22%

Pawłowice Śląskie scores more

22%

Ślęza Wrocław at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff