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Ślęza Wrocław vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
A. Santos 90+4' (pen)
M. Trepczynski 75'
J. Passoni 58'
A. Samiec 3'
N. Jaszczak 65' (pen)
4/27/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 26Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław55%
×Draw21%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
2.03
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.26

Ślęza Wrocław creates 61% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
76%
Ślęza Wrocław or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
79%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
45%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
33%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
87%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
60%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
33%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
72%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
36%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
70%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.03

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
55%
level
21%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
24%

Ślęza Wrocław at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
A. Samiec
58'
J. Passoni
65'
N. JaszczakPenalty
75'
M. Trepczynski
90+4'
A. SantosPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ślęza Wrocław 4–1 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Ślęza Wrocław beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 4-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 27, 2022.

Goals: A. Samiec (3'), J. Passoni (58'), N. Jaszczak (65' pen), M. Trepczynski (75'), A. Santos (90+4' pen).

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.