Sleipner 5–0 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK: Result & Stats

Sleipner

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

9/9/2022

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 21PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sleipner58%

×Draw20%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SleipnerExpected goals in this matchTrosa-Vagnhärad SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.42

Sleipner

2.35

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.42

Sleipner creates 65% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 34 away

1.95

creates per match

1.26

1.57

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Sleipner

1.95

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.26

allows per match

Sleipner

1.57

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sleipner+0.00on par

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sleipner ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Sleipner or draw

77%

Sleipner or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

80%

Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

42%

Winning margin

Sleipner wins by 2+

36%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sleipner 1+ goals

90%

Sleipner 2+ goals

68%

Sleipner 3+ goals

41%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals

76%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals

41%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sleipner (draw refunded)

72%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sleipner at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sleipner attack 1.95 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.35

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Sleipner defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sleipner scores more

58%

level

20%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more

23%

Sleipner at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sleipner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff