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Sleipner vs Oskarshamns AIK — Svenska Cupen 2019

Sleipner
Sleipner
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Oskarshamns AIK
Oskarshamns AIK
6/30/2021Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 1st RoundPlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sleipner29%
×Draw19%
Oskarshamns AIK52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sleipner
1.88
Oskarshamns AIK
2.56

Oskarshamns AIK creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sleipner
1.00
Oskarshamns AIK
2.13

allows per match

Sleipner
3.00
Oskarshamns AIK
2.75

finishing

Sleipner+0.00on par
Oskarshamns AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sleipner ↓

Oskarshamns AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Sleipner or draw
48%
Sleipner or Oskarshamns AIK
81%
Draw or Oskarshamns AIK
71%

Winning margin

Sleipner wins by 2+
14%
Oskarshamns AIK wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Sleipner 1+ goals
85%
Sleipner 2+ goals
56%
Sleipner 3+ goals
29%
Oskarshamns AIK 1+ goals
92%
Oskarshamns AIK 2+ goals
72%
Oskarshamns AIK 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Sleipner (draw refunded)
35%
Oskarshamns AIK (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sleipner at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Oskarshamns AIK away — creates 2.13, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sleipner attack 1.00 + Oskarshamns AIK defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Oskarshamns AIK attack 2.13 + Sleipner defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sleipner scores more
29%
level
19%
Oskarshamns AIK scores more
52%

Oskarshamns AIK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Oskarshamns AIK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sleipner vs Oskarshamns AIK

Sleipner beat Oskarshamns AIK 2-1 in Svenska Cupen on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.