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Sleipner vs IFK Eskilstuna — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Sleipner
Sleipner
FT
2 – 2
IFK Eskilstuna
IFK Eskilstuna
8/26/2022Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 19PlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Sleipner53%
×Draw21%
IFK Eskilstuna26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sleipner
2.19
IFK Eskilstuna
1.50

Sleipner creates 46% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Sleipner
1.95
IFK Eskilstuna
1.43

allows per match

Sleipner
1.57
IFK Eskilstuna
2.42

finishing

Sleipner+0.00on par
IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sleipner ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sleipner or draw
74%
Sleipner or IFK Eskilstuna
79%
Draw or IFK Eskilstuna
47%

Winning margin

Sleipner wins by 2+
32%
IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sleipner 1+ goals
89%
Sleipner 2+ goals
64%
Sleipner 3+ goals
37%
IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals
78%
IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals
44%
IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sleipner (draw refunded)
67%
IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sleipner at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sleipner attack 1.95 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.19

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Sleipner defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sleipner scores more
53%
level
21%
IFK Eskilstuna scores more
26%

Sleipner at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sleipner will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sleipner vs IFK Eskilstuna

Sleipner and IFK Eskilstuna drew 2-2 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at PlatinumCars Arena in Norrköping.