Sleipner 1–8 Degerfors IF: Result & Stats

Sleipner

FT

1 – 8

HT: 1 – 5

Degerfors IF

8/18/2021

Svenska Cupen · 2nd RoundPlatinumCars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sleipner16%

×Draw17%

Degerfors IF67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SleipnerExpected goals in this matchDegerfors IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

2.79

Sleipner

1.32

Degerfors IF

2.79

Degerfors IF creates 111% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

2.59

3.00

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Sleipner

1.00

Degerfors IF

2.59

allows per match

Sleipner

3.00

Degerfors IF

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sleipner+0.00on par

Degerfors IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sleipner ↓

Degerfors IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Sleipner or draw

33%

Sleipner or Degerfors IF

83%

Draw or Degerfors IF

84%

Winning margin

Sleipner wins by 2+

6%

Degerfors IF wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Sleipner 1+ goals

73%

Sleipner 2+ goals

38%

Sleipner 3+ goals

15%

Degerfors IF 1+ goals

94%

Degerfors IF 2+ goals

76%

Degerfors IF 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Sleipner (draw refunded)

19%

Degerfors IF (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sleipner at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Degerfors IF away — creates 2.59, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sleipner attack 1.00 + Degerfors IF defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Degerfors IF attack 2.59 + Sleipner defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sleipner scores more

16%

level

17%

Degerfors IF scores more

67%

Degerfors IF at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Degerfors IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff