Slee Juniors 0–1 Inter Moengotapoe: Result & Stats

Slee Juniors

FT

0 – 1

Inter Moengotapoe

4/29/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 14Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slee Juniors27%

×Draw21%

Inter Moengotapoe51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slee JuniorsExpected goals in this matchInter Moengotapoe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.05

Slee Juniors

1.44

Inter Moengotapoe

2.05

Inter Moengotapoe creates 42% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 64 away

1.58

creates per match

2.36

1.75

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Slee Juniors

1.58

Inter Moengotapoe

2.36

allows per match

Slee Juniors

1.75

Inter Moengotapoe

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Inter Moengotapoe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slee Juniors ↓

Inter Moengotapoe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Slee Juniors or draw

49%

Slee Juniors or Inter Moengotapoe

79%

Draw or Inter Moengotapoe

73%

Winning margin

Slee Juniors wins by 2+

12%

Inter Moengotapoe wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Slee Juniors 1+ goals

76%

Slee Juniors 2+ goals

42%

Slee Juniors 3+ goals

18%

Inter Moengotapoe 1+ goals

87%

Inter Moengotapoe 2+ goals

61%

Inter Moengotapoe 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Slee Juniors (draw refunded)

34%

Inter Moengotapoe (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slee Juniors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Inter Moengotapoe away — creates 2.36, concedes 1.30 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slee Juniors attack 1.58 + Inter Moengotapoe defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Inter Moengotapoe attack 2.36 + Slee Juniors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Slee Juniors scores more

27%

level

21%

Inter Moengotapoe scores more

51%

Inter Moengotapoe at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Inter Moengotapoe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff