Slee Juniors 2–3 Flora Tallinn: Result & Stats

Slee Juniors

FT

2 – 3

Flora Tallinn

4/16/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 12Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slee Juniors47%

×Draw22%

Flora Tallinn31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slee JuniorsExpected goals in this matchFlora Tallinn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.54

Slee Juniors

1.92

Flora Tallinn

1.54

Slee Juniors creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.58

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Slee Juniors

1.58

Flora Tallinn

1.33

allows per match

Slee Juniors

1.75

Flora Tallinn

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slee Juniors+0.00on par

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slee Juniors ↓

Flora Tallinn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Slee Juniors or draw

69%

Slee Juniors or Flora Tallinn

78%

Draw or Flora Tallinn

53%

Winning margin

Slee Juniors wins by 2+

26%

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Slee Juniors 1+ goals

85%

Slee Juniors 2+ goals

57%

Slee Juniors 3+ goals

30%

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals

79%

Flora Tallinn 2+ goals

45%

Flora Tallinn 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Slee Juniors (draw refunded)

60%

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slee Juniors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slee Juniors attack 1.58 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.92

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Slee Juniors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slee Juniors scores more

47%

level

22%

Flora Tallinn scores more

31%

Slee Juniors at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff