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Slee Juniors vs Broki — Eerste Divisie 2019

Slee Juniors
Slee Juniors
FT
3 – 0
Broki
Broki
5/6/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 15Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Slee Juniors41%
×Draw23%
Broki36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slee Juniors
1.77
Broki
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 59 away

creates per match

Slee Juniors
1.58
Broki
1.53

allows per match

Slee Juniors
1.75
Broki
1.97

finishing

Slee Juniors+0.00on par
Broki+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slee Juniors ↓

Broki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slee Juniors or draw
64%
Slee Juniors or Broki
77%
Draw or Broki
59%

Winning margin

Slee Juniors wins by 2+
22%
Broki wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Slee Juniors 1+ goals
83%
Slee Juniors 2+ goals
53%
Slee Juniors 3+ goals
26%
Broki 1+ goals
81%
Broki 2+ goals
49%
Broki 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Slee Juniors (draw refunded)
53%
Broki (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slee Juniors at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

Broki away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slee Juniors attack 1.58 + Broki defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Broki attack 1.53 + Slee Juniors defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slee Juniors scores more
41%
level
23%
Broki scores more
36%

Slee Juniors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slee Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slee Juniors vs Broki

Slee Juniors beat Broki 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.