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Slavoj Vyšehrad vs Sokol Hostouň — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Slavoj Vyšehrad
Slavoj Vyšehrad
FT
3 – 1
Sokol Hostouň
Sokol Hostouň
M. Kubes 90+1', 42'
M. Vanek 71'
S. Hajek 70'
9/4/20213. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 6Stadion Slavoj Vyšehrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slavoj Vyšehrad40%
×Draw22%
Sokol Hostouň38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Vyšehrad
1.84
Sokol Hostouň
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 87 away

creates per match

Slavoj Vyšehrad
1.86
Sokol Hostouň
1.03

allows per match

Slavoj Vyšehrad
2.57
Sokol Hostouň
1.82

finishing

Slavoj Vyšehrad+0.00on par
Sokol Hostouň+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 70No: 3070%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Vyšehrad ↓

Sokol Hostouň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Slavoj Vyšehrad or draw
62%
Slavoj Vyšehrad or Sokol Hostouň
78%
Draw or Sokol Hostouň
60%

Winning margin

Slavoj Vyšehrad wins by 2+
21%
Sokol Hostouň wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Slavoj Vyšehrad 1+ goals
84%
Slavoj Vyšehrad 2+ goals
55%
Slavoj Vyšehrad 3+ goals
28%
Sokol Hostouň 1+ goals
83%
Sokol Hostouň 2+ goals
54%
Sokol Hostouň 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Vyšehrad (draw refunded)
51%
Sokol Hostouň (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Vyšehrad at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Sokol Hostouň away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.82 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Vyšehrad attack 1.86 + Sokol Hostouň defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.84

Sokol Hostouň attack 1.03 + Slavoj Vyšehrad defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Slavoj Vyšehrad scores more
40%
level
22%
Sokol Hostouň scores more
38%

Slavoj Vyšehrad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Slavoj Vyšehrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
D. Tokar
39'
M. Kubes← M. Kubes
42'
M. Kubes
48'
M. Kubes
58'
Z. Hucek
60'
O. Soukup← O. Soukup
60'
J. Neruda← J. Neruda
70'
S. Hajek
71'
M. Vanek
72'
M. Vojta← M. Vojta
76'
V. Mentberger← V. Mentberger
84'
L. Gajdosik← L. Gajdosik
88'
M. Kouba← P. Lorenz
90+1'
M. Kubes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Slavoj Vyšehrad 3–1 Sokol Hostouň

Slavoj Vyšehrad beat Sokol Hostouň 3-1 in 3. liga - CFL A on September 4, 2021.

Goals: M. Kubes (42', 90+1'), S. Hajek (70'), M. Vanek (71').

The match was played at Stadion Slavoj Vyšehrad in Praha.