Slavoj Trebišov 1–0 Spišská Nová Ves

Slavoj Trebišov

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spišská Nová Ves

9/30/2023

2. liga · Round 10Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov61%

×Draw22%

Spišská Nová Ves17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavoj TrebišovExpected goals in this matchSpišská Nová Ves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.92

Slavoj Trebišov

1.94

Spišská Nová Ves

0.92

Slavoj Trebišov creates 111% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 16 away

1.45

creates per match

0.56

1.27

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov

1.45

Spišská Nová Ves

0.56

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov

1.27

Spišská Nová Ves

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw

83%

Slavoj Trebišov or Spišská Nová Ves

78%

Draw or Spišská Nová Ves

39%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+

37%

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals

86%

Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals

58%

Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals

30%

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

60%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

23%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)

78%

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.94

Spišská Nová Ves attack 0.56 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more

61%

level

22%

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

17%

Slavoj Trebišov at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff