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Slavoj Trebišov vs Spartak Myjava — 2. liga 2019

Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
8/6/20222. liga2. liga · Round 4Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov41%
×Draw25%
Spartak Myjava34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Trebišov
1.49
Spartak Myjava
1.35

Slavoj Trebišov creates 10% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.45
Spartak Myjava
1.43

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.27
Spartak Myjava
1.53

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Spartak Myjava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw
66%
Slavoj Trebišov or Spartak Myjava
75%
Draw or Spartak Myjava
59%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
20%
Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
77%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
44%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
54%
Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.49

Spartak Myjava attack 1.43 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more
41%
level
25%
Spartak Myjava scores more
34%

Slavoj Trebišov at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Slavoj Trebišov 1–1 Spartak Myjava

Slavoj Trebišov and Spartak Myjava drew 1-1 in 2. liga on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Slavoj Trebišov in Trebišov.