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Slavoj Trebišov vs Rohožník — 2. liga 2019

Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Rohožník
Rohožník
9/11/20212. liga2. liga · Round 8Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov50%
×Draw24%
Rohožník26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Trebišov
1.69
Rohožník
1.14

Slavoj Trebišov creates 48% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.45
Rohožník
1.00

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.27
Rohožník
1.93

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par
Rohožník+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Rohožník →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw
74%
Slavoj Trebišov or Rohožník
76%
Draw or Rohožník
50%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
27%
Rohožník wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
82%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
50%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
24%
Rohožník 1+ goals
68%
Rohožník 2+ goals
32%
Rohožník 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
66%
Rohožník (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Rohožník away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Rohožník defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rohožník attack 1.00 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more
50%
level
24%
Rohožník scores more
26%

Slavoj Trebišov at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Slavoj Trebišov 1–2 Rohožník

Rohožník beat Slavoj Trebišov 2-1 in 2. liga on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión Slavoj Trebišov in Trebišov.