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Slavoj Trebišov vs Komárno — 2. liga 2019

Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Komárno
Komárno
5/20/20222. liga2. liga · Round 30Štadión Slavoj Trebišov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Slavoj Trebišov42%
×Draw25%
Komárno33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Trebišov
1.47
Komárno
1.28

Slavoj Trebišov creates 15% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 70 away

creates per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.45
Komárno
1.29

allows per match

Slavoj Trebišov
1.27
Komárno
1.49

finishing

Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par
Komárno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Trebišov ↓

Komárno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Slavoj Trebišov or draw
67%
Slavoj Trebišov or Komárno
75%
Draw or Komárno
58%

Winning margin

Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
20%
Komárno wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
77%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
43%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
18%
Komárno 1+ goals
72%
Komárno 2+ goals
37%
Komárno 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
56%
Komárno (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Trebišov at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 67 matches

Komárno away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.49 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Trebišov attack 1.45 + Komárno defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.47

Komárno attack 1.29 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slavoj Trebišov scores more
42%
level
25%
Komárno scores more
33%

Slavoj Trebišov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slavoj Trebišov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Slavoj Trebišov 0–2 Komárno

Komárno beat Slavoj Trebišov 2-0 in 2. liga on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión Slavoj Trebišov in Trebišov.