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Slavoj Polná vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
PST
14:00
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
3/22/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 15Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Slavoj Polná17%
×Draw19%
Vysočina Jihlava II64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.07
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.25

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 110% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 19 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
36%
Slavoj Polná or Vysočina Jihlava II
81%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
83%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
6%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
66%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
29%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
9%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
89%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
65%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
21%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
17%
level
19%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
64%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Polná vs Vysočina Jihlava II — Match Preview

Slavoj Polná face Vysočina Jihlava II on March 22, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Slavoj Polná host Vysočina Jihlava II at Stadion Slavoj Polná.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.