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Slavoj Polná vs Velké Meziříčí — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Velké Meziříčí
Velké Meziříčí
5/31/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 28Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Slavoj Polná27%
×Draw22%
Velké Meziříčí50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.37
Velké Meziříčí
1.92

Velké Meziříčí creates 40% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 45 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Velké Meziříčí
1.33

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Velké Meziříčí
1.91

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Velké Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Velké Meziříčí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
50%
Slavoj Polná or Velké Meziříčí
78%
Draw or Velké Meziříčí
73%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
12%
Velké Meziříčí wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
75%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
40%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
16%
Velké Meziříčí 1+ goals
85%
Velké Meziříčí 2+ goals
57%
Velké Meziříčí 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
35%
Velké Meziříčí (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Velké Meziříčí away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Velké Meziříčí defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.37

Velké Meziříčí attack 1.33 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
27%
level
22%
Velké Meziříčí scores more
50%

Velké Meziříčí at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Velké Meziříčí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Polná vs Velké Meziříčí

Velké Meziříčí beat Slavoj Polná 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavoj Polná in Polná.