Slavoj Polná 1–2 Tatran Bohunice: Result & Stats

Slavoj Polná

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Tatran Bohunice

8/25/2024

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 4Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Slavoj Polná22%

×Draw22%

Tatran Bohunice57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavoj PolnáExpected goals in this matchTatran Bohunice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.98

Slavoj Polná

1.14

Tatran Bohunice

1.98

Tatran Bohunice creates 74% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 43 away

0.83

creates per match

1.47

2.50

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Slavoj Polná

0.83

Tatran Bohunice

1.47

allows per match

Slavoj Polná

2.50

Tatran Bohunice

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Tatran Bohunice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Tatran Bohunice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw

43%

Slavoj Polná or Tatran Bohunice

78%

Draw or Tatran Bohunice

78%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+

8%

Tatran Bohunice wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals

68%

Slavoj Polná 2+ goals

32%

Slavoj Polná 3+ goals

11%

Tatran Bohunice 1+ goals

86%

Tatran Bohunice 2+ goals

59%

Tatran Bohunice 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)

28%

Tatran Bohunice (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Tatran Bohunice away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.44 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Tatran Bohunice defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.14

Tatran Bohunice attack 1.47 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more

22%

level

22%

Tatran Bohunice scores more

57%

Tatran Bohunice at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tatran Bohunice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff