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Slavoj Polná vs Sokol Tasovice — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
CANC
13:30
Sokol Tasovice
Sokol Tasovice
3/21/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 12Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavoj Polná25%
×Draw22%
Sokol Tasovice53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.36
Sokol Tasovice
2.04

Sokol Tasovice creates 50% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 82 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Sokol Tasovice
1.57

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Sokol Tasovice
1.89

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Sokol Tasovice+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Sokol Tasovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
47%
Slavoj Polná or Sokol Tasovice
78%
Draw or Sokol Tasovice
75%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
11%
Sokol Tasovice wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
74%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
39%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
16%
Sokol Tasovice 1+ goals
87%
Sokol Tasovice 2+ goals
60%
Sokol Tasovice 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
32%
Sokol Tasovice (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Sokol Tasovice away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.89 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Sokol Tasovice defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sokol Tasovice attack 1.57 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
25%
level
22%
Sokol Tasovice scores more
53%

Sokol Tasovice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Tasovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Polná face Sokol Tasovice (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Slavoj Polná hosting Sokol Tasovice. Match starts March 21, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slavoj Polná host Sokol Tasovice at Stadion Slavoj Polná.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.