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Slavoj Polná vs Humpolec — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Humpolec
Humpolec
3/17/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 17Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavoj Polná30%
×Draw23%
Humpolec47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.43
Humpolec
1.82

Humpolec creates 27% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 82 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Humpolec
1.15

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Humpolec
2.02

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Humpolec+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Humpolec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
53%
Slavoj Polná or Humpolec
77%
Draw or Humpolec
70%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
14%
Humpolec wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
76%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
42%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
17%
Humpolec 1+ goals
84%
Humpolec 2+ goals
54%
Humpolec 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
39%
Humpolec (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Humpolec away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.02 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Humpolec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.43

Humpolec attack 1.15 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
30%
level
23%
Humpolec scores more
47%

Humpolec at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Humpolec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Slavoj Polná vs Humpolec

Slavoj Polná beat Humpolec 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Slavoj Polná in Polná.