Slavoj Polná vs Havlíčkův Brod

Slavoj Polná

CANC

13:30

Havlíčkův Brod

4/4/2021

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 14Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavoj Polná25%

×Draw22%

Havlíčkův Brod53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavoj PolnáExpected goals in this matchHavlíčkův Brod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.91

Slavoj Polná

1.23

Havlíčkův Brod

1.91

Havlíčkův Brod creates 55% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 80 away

0.83

creates per match

1.32

2.50

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Slavoj Polná

0.83

Havlíčkův Brod

1.32

allows per match

Slavoj Polná

2.50

Havlíčkův Brod

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Havlíčkův Brod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw

47%

Slavoj Polná or Havlíčkův Brod

78%

Draw or Havlíčkův Brod

75%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+

10%

Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals

71%

Slavoj Polná 2+ goals

35%

Slavoj Polná 3+ goals

13%

Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals

85%

Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals

57%

Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)

32%

Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Havlíčkův Brod away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.63 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.23

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.32 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more

25%

level

22%

Havlíčkův Brod scores more

53%

Havlíčkův Brod at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Havlíčkův Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff