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Havlíčkův Brod vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Havlíčkův Brod
Havlíčkův Brod
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
4/13/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 21Stadion Na Losích

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Havlíčkův Brod64%
×Draw18%
Slavoj Polná18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havlíčkův Brod
2.46
Slavoj Polná
1.23

Havlíčkův Brod creates 100% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 54 away

creates per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.71
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Havlíčkův Brod
1.49
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havlíčkův Brod ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Havlíčkův Brod or draw
82%
Havlíčkův Brod or Slavoj Polná
82%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
36%

Winning margin

Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+
42%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals
91%
Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals
70%
Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals
44%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
71%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
35%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)
78%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havlíčkův Brod at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.49 · 83 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.71 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.46

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Havlíčkův Brod scores more
64%
level
18%
Slavoj Polná scores more
18%

Havlíčkův Brod at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Havlíčkův Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Havlíčkův Brod 2–0 Slavoj Polná

Havlíčkův Brod beat Slavoj Polná 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Losích in Havlíčkův Brod.