Slavoj Polná 3–2 Dálnice Speřice: Result & Stats

Slavoj Polná

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Dálnice Speřice

5/4/2025

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 24Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavoj Polná42%

×Draw23%

Dálnice Speřice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Slavoj PolnáExpected goals in this matchDálnice Speřice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.56

Slavoj Polná

1.71

Dálnice Speřice

1.56

Slavoj Polná creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 58 away

0.83

creates per match

0.62

2.50

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Slavoj Polná

0.83

Dálnice Speřice

0.62

allows per match

Slavoj Polná

2.50

Dálnice Speřice

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Dálnice Speřice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Dálnice Speřice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw

65%

Slavoj Polná or Dálnice Speřice

77%

Draw or Dálnice Speřice

58%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+

22%

Dálnice Speřice wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals

82%

Slavoj Polná 2+ goals

51%

Slavoj Polná 3+ goals

24%

Dálnice Speřice 1+ goals

79%

Dálnice Speřice 2+ goals

46%

Dálnice Speřice 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)

54%

Dálnice Speřice (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Dálnice Speřice away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.59 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Dálnice Speřice defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dálnice Speřice attack 0.62 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more

42%

level

23%

Dálnice Speřice scores more

35%

Slavoj Polná at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Slavoj Polná will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff