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Slavoj Polná vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
FT
2 – 2
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
10/17/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 12Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Slavoj Polná37%
×Draw22%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.73
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.19

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.62

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
59%
Slavoj Polná or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
78%
Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
63%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
19%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
82%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
52%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
25%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
84%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
55%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
47%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
37%
level
22%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
41%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bystřice nad Pernštejnem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Slavoj Polná 2–2 Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Slavoj Polná and Bystřice nad Pernštejnem drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Slavoj Polná in Polná.