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Slavoj Polná vs Břeclav — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
CANC
15:00
Břeclav
Břeclav
5/16/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 20Stadion Slavoj Polná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Slavoj Polná33%
×Draw23%
Břeclav44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Polná
1.49
Břeclav
1.77

Břeclav creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 66 away

creates per match

Slavoj Polná
0.83
Břeclav
1.03

allows per match

Slavoj Polná
2.50
Břeclav
2.14

finishing

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par
Břeclav+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Polná ↓

Břeclav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Slavoj Polná or draw
56%
Slavoj Polná or Břeclav
77%
Draw or Břeclav
67%

Winning margin

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
15%
Břeclav wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
77%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
44%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
19%
Břeclav 1+ goals
83%
Břeclav 2+ goals
53%
Břeclav 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
42%
Břeclav (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Polná at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Břeclav away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Polná attack 0.83 + Břeclav defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.49

Břeclav attack 1.03 + Slavoj Polná defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Slavoj Polná scores more
33%
level
23%
Břeclav scores more
44%

Břeclav at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Břeclav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Polná face Břeclav (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Slavoj Polná hosting Břeclav. Match starts May 16, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Slavoj Polná host Břeclav at Stadion Slavoj Polná.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.