Břeclav 2–2 Slavoj Polná: Result & Stats

Břeclav

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Slavoj Polná

9/16/2023

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 7Stadion Lesní ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Břeclav62%

×Draw19%

Slavoj Polná18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BřeclavExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Polná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.16

Břeclav

2.29

Slavoj Polná

1.16

Břeclav creates 97% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 54 away

1.39

creates per match

0.96

1.36

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Břeclav

1.39

Slavoj Polná

0.96

allows per match

Břeclav

1.36

Slavoj Polná

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Břeclav+0.00on par

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Břeclav ↓

Slavoj Polná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Břeclav or draw

82%

Břeclav or Slavoj Polná

81%

Draw or Slavoj Polná

38%

Winning margin

Břeclav wins by 2+

40%

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Břeclav 1+ goals

90%

Břeclav 2+ goals

66%

Břeclav 3+ goals

40%

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals

69%

Slavoj Polná 2+ goals

32%

Slavoj Polná 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Břeclav (draw refunded)

77%

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Břeclav at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Břeclav attack 1.39 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.29

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Břeclav defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Břeclav scores more

62%

level

19%

Slavoj Polná scores more

18%

Břeclav at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Břeclav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff