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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Řepiště — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Řepiště
Řepiště
9/17/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 7Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál52%
×Draw21%
Řepiště28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.21
Řepiště
1.58

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál creates 40% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 30 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Řepiště
0.97

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Řepiště
3.07

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Řepiště+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Řepiště →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
72%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Řepiště
79%
Draw or Řepiště
48%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
31%
Řepiště wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
89%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
65%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
38%
Řepiště 1+ goals
79%
Řepiště 2+ goals
47%
Řepiště 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
65%
Řepiště (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Řepiště away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Řepiště defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.21

Řepiště attack 0.97 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
52%
level
21%
Řepiště scores more
28%

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Slavoj Olympia Bruntál will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 0–2 Řepiště

Řepiště beat Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál in Bruntál.