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Slavoj Olympia Bruntál vs Opava II — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Opava II
Opava II
10/29/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 13Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál31%
×Draw23%
Opava II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.49
Opava II
1.85

Opava II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 74 away

creates per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.36
Opava II
1.51

allows per match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.19
Opava II
1.61

finishing

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par
Opava II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál ↓

Opava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or draw
54%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál or Opava II
77%
Draw or Opava II
69%

Winning margin

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
14%
Opava II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
77%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
44%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
19%
Opava II 1+ goals
84%
Opava II 2+ goals
55%
Opava II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
40%
Opava II (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.19 · 47 matches

Opava II away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 1.36 + Opava II defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.49

Opava II attack 1.51 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
31%
level
23%
Opava II scores more
46%

Opava II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Opava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 0 – 3 Opava II

Opava II beat Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový štadión FC Slavoj Olympia Bruntál in Bruntál.